Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group I
On Friday, Feb. 2nd, the fourth assessment report from Working Group I, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published. Working Group I is composed of scientists from all over the world who focus on the “Physical Sciences Basis” of global warming. The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988.
You can download the PDF summary report here.
Under the heading “DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE”:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones
And under the heading “A PALEOCLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE”:
Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.
And finally, under the heading “UNDERSTANDING AND ATTRIBUTING CLIMATE CHANGE”:
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
It’s seems like the time of debating whether global warming is real and caused by humans (anthropogenic) is over. Whether there is political will and political leadership at the national level is still to be seen. And just because we’re confident about the causes of the problem, doesn’t mean we have a plan to mitigate it.
There are some good ideas floating around. One of the more interesting ones I’ve read is by Oliver Tickell, in the article, “Climate change: Time to get serious.” Tickell addresses the sticky issue of a cap-and-trade system by proposing that carbon rights be allocated and sold globally. He also suggests controlling greenhouse gases at the point of production rather than where they are emitted:
1 impose a series of global caps on annual greenhouse gas production
2 set aside the country-based approach, replacing it with a unified global approach
3 control greenhouse gases at point of production, not of emission; in the case of fossil fuel emissions, control the production of the fuel itself as close as feasible to the mine or well-head, based on the global warming potential of the fuel in question when burnt
4 sell greenhouse gas production “Rights” at a global auction open to all bidders
5 limit the fossil fuel production of any company in any year to the level for which they have obtained Rights
